Plant diseases for major crops in egypt under future climate conditions

Khalil A.A., Y.H. Essa. Hassan H.A. and Abolmaaty S.M

The impacts of climate change can be positive, negative or neutral, since these changes can decrease, increase or have no impact on diseases, depending on each region or period. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on plant diseases which are most infection for the five strategic crops (Maize, Wheat, Faba Bean, Tomato and Potato) in Egypt. The evaluation has been done on the basis of assessing the favorable weather conditions for disease infection according to future climate data. The climate change data has been obtained from downscaling on global climate model ECHAM6 of scenario RCP 4.5 by a horizontal resolution 50 km during the period from 2010 up to 2090, and the results indicated that, the highest availability of the favorable conditions for infection will be in Lower Egypt followed by Middle and Upper Egypt Governorates, and the infection rate tend to increase in the future except in the diseases which depend on wet condition where this condition will decrease in the future at Lower and Middle Egypt Governorates.

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