Price forecasting of chilli - by an exponential smoothing

Dhananjayamurthy B.V., Krishnamurthy K. N and Murthy K. B

The present study analyzes the forecasting of prices of chilli in Byadgi market of Karnataka. The monthly time series data over a period of 16 years from January 2003 to May 2018 were collected from Agricultural Produce Marketing Committees (APMC) located at Byadgi. Different methods viz., Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing and Triple Exponential Smoothing were carried out to know the best forecasting model during the study period. The results revealed that Single Exponential Smoothing was found to be the best model with R2 of 0.96, mean absolute deviation of 768, mean absolute percentage error of 15, a correlation coefficient of 0.93 and the coefficient of variation of 47.66 for forecasting of prices of chilli in Byadgi market by considering all the parameters.

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